Behind warlike rhetoric, the signs are that sanctions have been effective: the time is ripe for renewed diplomacy with Iran
Iran's nuclear chief Ali Akbar Salehi has conceded that sanctions could slow
down its programme. Photograph: Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, said Wednesday that talks about his country's nuclear programme will not take place "under the shadow" of threats. The United States and other countries should grasp this opportunity, rein in the rhetoric of military action and return to talks with Iran without delay. The time is ripe to take steps towards a negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear conundrum.
Previous diplomatic efforts with Iran failed because the United States was not at the table and because Iran seemed immune to outside pressure and did not have much to gain by talking to Europe alone. Now, the circumstances are fundamentally improved. Catherine Ashton, the European Union's foreign policy chief, who is expected to spearhead prospective talks between major powers and Iran, still needs more than a favourable climate for successful negotiations. To find a solution to the Iranian nuclear standoff, the US needs to be ready to offer Iran a security assurance; and other countries must be willing to go beyond the current set of economic sanctions if Tehran continues to violate nonproliferation rules.
The US refusal to engage fully and talk directly with Iran wrecked the prospects for earlier diplomatic endeavours with Iran. But direct talks are now a key pillar of President Obama's nonproliferation strategy vis-à-vis Tehran. And with American negotiators present, what Iran wants most – a broader discussion about its national security in the regional context – can be addressed in a credible manner because the US is the only state that can ultimately assuage Iran's security concerns.
Moreover, despite President Ahmadinejad's early dismissal of the new sanctions, there is evidence suggesting that the stepped-up economic punishment is adversely affecting Iran. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, recently became the first senior Iranian official to admit that UN sanctions could slow the country's nuclear efforts.
On this point, Tehran and Washington find rare common ground. In early August, President Obama said that "the costs of the sanctions are going to be higher than Iran would have anticipated." US, EU, Canadian and Australian unilateral sanctions are also likely to increase the pressure on an already mismanaged Iranian economy.
So with efforts at achieving a first round of talks on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York in September underway, how can Ashton exercise influence? Since becoming the EU's top diplomat in December 2009, Ashton has made the Iranian issue a top priority. Throughout the spring, she continuously urged Iran to return to the negotiation table, while at the same time maintaining that her approach included both carrots and sticks – supporting UN sanctions and then coordinating unilateral EU economic measures against Iran.
On 20 July 2010, Ashton met Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, to stress renewed negotiations. Days later, after some diplomatic pressure applied by Turkey, President Ahmadinejad agreed to renew discussions with the P5+1 (US, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany).
That Iran has agreed to talks is not only confirmation that Ashton's diplomatic outreach worked, it also increases her international clout. But it is not only Ashton, Obama and international and unilateral economic pressure that have facilitated the upcoming return of negotiations. Tehran also deserves a measure of credit for creating space for compromise over its nuclear programme. Following the announcement that Tehran was ready to discuss with the P5+1, Salehi said that so long as nuclear fuel to Iran would be guaranteed, the country was ready to rethink its controversial decision to enrich uranium to 20%.
While this statement and recent developments could be another move from the Iranian nuclear playbook of delay and deception, it may also indicate that there is flexibility over its nuclear programme. The US must now be willing to put an Iranian security assurance on the table, even while other countries involved should be prepared to increase economic pressure on Tehran if it continues its nuclear trickery.
It is this combination of carrots and sticks that has brought Iran back to talks, and these will be the baseline conditions for a nuclear weapons-free Iran. So let's talk with Iran: a negotiated solution is now on the horizon.
Previous diplomatic efforts with Iran failed because the United States was not at the table and because Iran seemed immune to outside pressure and did not have much to gain by talking to Europe alone. Now, the circumstances are fundamentally improved. Catherine Ashton, the European Union's foreign policy chief, who is expected to spearhead prospective talks between major powers and Iran, still needs more than a favourable climate for successful negotiations. To find a solution to the Iranian nuclear standoff, the US needs to be ready to offer Iran a security assurance; and other countries must be willing to go beyond the current set of economic sanctions if Tehran continues to violate nonproliferation rules.
The US refusal to engage fully and talk directly with Iran wrecked the prospects for earlier diplomatic endeavours with Iran. But direct talks are now a key pillar of President Obama's nonproliferation strategy vis-à-vis Tehran. And with American negotiators present, what Iran wants most – a broader discussion about its national security in the regional context – can be addressed in a credible manner because the US is the only state that can ultimately assuage Iran's security concerns.
Moreover, despite President Ahmadinejad's early dismissal of the new sanctions, there is evidence suggesting that the stepped-up economic punishment is adversely affecting Iran. Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, recently became the first senior Iranian official to admit that UN sanctions could slow the country's nuclear efforts.
On this point, Tehran and Washington find rare common ground. In early August, President Obama said that "the costs of the sanctions are going to be higher than Iran would have anticipated." US, EU, Canadian and Australian unilateral sanctions are also likely to increase the pressure on an already mismanaged Iranian economy.
So with efforts at achieving a first round of talks on the sidelines of the UN general assembly in New York in September underway, how can Ashton exercise influence? Since becoming the EU's top diplomat in December 2009, Ashton has made the Iranian issue a top priority. Throughout the spring, she continuously urged Iran to return to the negotiation table, while at the same time maintaining that her approach included both carrots and sticks – supporting UN sanctions and then coordinating unilateral EU economic measures against Iran.
On 20 July 2010, Ashton met Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, to stress renewed negotiations. Days later, after some diplomatic pressure applied by Turkey, President Ahmadinejad agreed to renew discussions with the P5+1 (US, Russia, China, the UK, France and Germany).
That Iran has agreed to talks is not only confirmation that Ashton's diplomatic outreach worked, it also increases her international clout. But it is not only Ashton, Obama and international and unilateral economic pressure that have facilitated the upcoming return of negotiations. Tehran also deserves a measure of credit for creating space for compromise over its nuclear programme. Following the announcement that Tehran was ready to discuss with the P5+1, Salehi said that so long as nuclear fuel to Iran would be guaranteed, the country was ready to rethink its controversial decision to enrich uranium to 20%.
While this statement and recent developments could be another move from the Iranian nuclear playbook of delay and deception, it may also indicate that there is flexibility over its nuclear programme. The US must now be willing to put an Iranian security assurance on the table, even while other countries involved should be prepared to increase economic pressure on Tehran if it continues its nuclear trickery.
It is this combination of carrots and sticks that has brought Iran back to talks, and these will be the baseline conditions for a nuclear weapons-free Iran. So let's talk with Iran: a negotiated solution is now on the horizon.
Esperavamos do Irã uma posição mais firme em resposta às sanções sofridas, é lamentável o que está acontecendo já que antes ele tinha dito que não ia se dobrar a nenhum tipo de ameaça ou sanção. Contudo sabemos o impacto que sanções provocam à economia de um país, alguns países estão dispostos a suportar essa situação e outros não, assim como muitas vezes os países que suportam só o fazem por um determinado tempo.
ResponderExcluirA Coréia do Norte, não deixa também de atentar que tal atitude Iraniana possa fazer parte de algum plano.
Cabe a nós somente esperar os próximos acontecimentos.
Kim Kyong-hui
Acho que o tempo de falarmos sobre sanções econômicas já passou, visto que o Estado Iraniano se recusa a cooperar.
ResponderExcluirSecretário de Estado para Defesa do Reino Unido
Liam Fox